Brief Summary
The ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia has now been going on for almost 3 years and 9 months.
CSIS
Council on Foreign Relations
- The war has reached a protracted state — major attacks are still ongoing, but neither side has been able to significantly change the course of the war.
Key Trends
Eastern Ukraine, the epicenter of tension
• The town of Pokrovsk remains a key battleground. Ukrainian forces have sent special operations forces there.
• In even a small part of Russia's territory — such as the eastern Donetsk region — there are reports that Russian forces have made some progress.
Prolonged stalemate and damage patterns
• Overall, the war is now at a “no major breakthrough” stage.
Council on Foreign Relations
• The extent of Russian losses is very significant. The Ukrainian side claims that there has been significant damage to Russian troops, equipment, and vehicles.
• There are reports that Russia has identified more than a million soldiers as "killed or wounded," according to Ukrainian claims.
Future Risks and Opportunities
The war is still in a stalemate; neither side has had a major opportunity to make major changes.
Infrastructure and civilian life are more likely to be damaged before winter.
International political changes can have a major impact on the course of the war (for example: belligerent countries or changes in supplies).
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